Polls, Polls And More Polls
It’s a fact. The polls look terrible for conservatives this year. The GOP is either behind or tied even in reliable GOP strongholds like Texas, Iowa, South Carolina and Kansas.
But I don’t like polls. Don’t trust them either.
Remember this?
Where did that whacky prediction originate? Polls, of course.
Another example, closer to home: In 2016 I was a metro columnist for The Virginian-Pilot. Besides it being a presidential year, a big issue on the ballot that November was a referendum on light rail. Would Virginia Beach voters approve a measure to extend Norfolk’s failed light rail system into the Resort City at a cost of close to $100 million a mile.
This was a developer- driven project. Fat cats at the beach wanted the train, despite studies that showed it would do nothing to reduce traffic congestion.
The Pilot’s editorial board was cheerleading for the project.
Shortly before Election Day, the newspaper that had laid off scores of workers and was clearly in deep financial trouble, nevertheless jointly commissioned a Christopher Newport University light rail poll with a local TV station. It showed an almost even split between those who were for and those against the boondoggle.
I asked the editors why they did the polling. Why not simply wait till Election Day?
News, they said. This was news.
No, it was not news. It was a news outlet paid-for poll.
I never believed the results. I live in Virginia Beach and it was clear to me that the people weren’t fooled. Opposition to the wasteful project led by former City Treasurer John Atkinson was strong.
The final results: Light rail lost 58% to 42%. That was a shellacking.
Did the poll rile up the opposition and get them to come out and give a big middle finger to the powerful lobby behind the project? Or did the poll stifle some of the nay votes?
We’ll never know.
We should be skeptical about polls and acknowledge that they are not news. They’re soothsaying wrapped in pseudo-science. Sometimes they get it right, often they don’t.
Candidates definitely need to do polling. But they rarely share their internal polls with the public.
It’s clear why news outlets like them. Especially in the current climate.
With dire predictions of a “blue tsunami” from North Carolina to Alaska it’s worth asking what effect the polls will have on voters. Will Republicans stay home, figuring they’re going to lose the midterms? Or will pollsters have egg on their faces November 3rd?
I have no idea.
But it’s hard for me to believe that people who are angry about gas prices are going to vote for the party that killed the Keystone XL pipeline, drained our Strategic Petroleum Reserves and halted all offshore drilling and exploration.
It’s also hard to believe that people who are worried about 3.4% inflation are going to vote for the party that brought 9.1% inflation just a couple of years ago.
And it’s counterintuitive to believe that those who are upset about the cost of the war in Iran are going to support the party that wants to throw unlimited money at Ukraine.
And why would anyone vote for the party that embraces antisemitism, coddles criminals, opens the border, allows boys in girls’ sports and wants to cut off the genitals of confused children? Oh, and let’s not forget, the Dems are now in bed with communists who masquerade as Democrat Socialists.
While it’s true the Republicans haven’t delivered on all of their promises in Trump’s first two years, it’s worth remembering that Trump was re-elected precisely because the Biden presidency was a disaster.
If the polls are right, Americans are suffering from a widespread amnesiac event.
Not buying it.
