Good News for Virginia Republicans
Governor Spanberger’s repudiation of the political center combines with national trends to give redistricting opponents a massive boost in Virginia.
by Shaun Kenney
Former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) emerges from the mists and announces that he has more to give in the political arena, which is welcome news to Virginians who are staring down the immediate threat of the looming redistricting amendment on April 21st as well as a bevy of state amendments in November.
A late entry into the redistricting fight, Youngkin has hoovered in a solid six-figure donation to Virginians for Fair Maps, one of the three efforts to turn back the $50 million left-wing dark money campaign to rig the lines from non-partisan redistricting to a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander.
Meanwhile, Brian Cannon — architect of the Virginia 2021 non-partisan redistricting effort which carried the day by 2-1 margins — writes in the pages of Cardinal News how the rigged gerrymandering effort by the self-styled defenders of democracy is ill-placed and off-center:
If Texas disenfranchises Democratic voters, the answer is not for Virginia to disenfranchise Republicans. Once each side justifies its conduct by pointing to the worst behavior elsewhere, reform becomes conditional and principles become temporary. Respected Czech dissident and later president Václav Havel warned that democratic societies erode not only through dramatic coups, but through small accommodations to expedience — moments when we tell ourselves that bending the rules is necessary this time. That logic does not stop at one exception.
That is how democratic norms decay.
Anyone who quotes Vaclav Havel must be recognized.
Among Virginia Democrats, the brutal reality of the WaPo-Scharr poll showing Spanberger as the most divisive personality in modern Virginia polling is reverberating with an admixture of shock and horror among those cocooned in their own talking points.
YouGov/Economist: D+2 Generic Ballot
UVA’s Larry Sabato at the Center for Politics isn’t terribly chagrinned just yet and wants to see another poll reflecting the trend, but a 10-point drop in 10 weeks is reflecting a basic truth: Spanberger ran on affordability, delivered nothing, and is imposing a litany of horribles with a power grab via gerrymander at the crowning achievement.
Yet if the WaPo-Scharr numbers aren’t convincing enough, then the generic ballot numbers from YouGov/Economist might be sobering enough. Despite $4/gal gasoline and the ongoing conflict in Iran, the generic congressional ballot is a modest D+2.
Now in one sense, should these numbers hold and the Democratic gerrymander be turned back this April, it certainly broadens the playing field a bit. VA-01, VA-02, and VA-05 are certainly more defensible, but it would put Eugene Vindman in VA-07 in play and lock up his resources in Virginia as opposed to the DCCC spending it elsewhere.
On the flip side, Spanberger’s numbers now become a bit more sharpened, as a 47% approval rating may seem low, but the divisive nature and extreme opinions in the electorate give you two insights: (1) D+2 or D+5 is most likely the generic ballot in Virginia, and (2) the polarizing nature of the numbers indicates that there isn’t much room for discussion — folks are in their camps and not moving an inch, with voter intensity being the real metric of strength vs. a broader sense of popularity.
10-1 vs. 9-2?
This sets up the stage for the inevitable hard work that lies ahead. Even if the redistricting amendment goes down hard, Virginia Republicans will be fighting hard for Wittman and Kiggans while in VA-05 and VA-07 there will be at least two intramural contests to determine the Republican nominee.
As for the Democrats who all jumped into races where the lines where the democratic will of the voters is yet to be ascertained — and it’s funny how that works, isn’t it? — one suspects that they will bleed away appropriate to their stations with one or possibly two exceptions. Personally, one would love to see a contest between Dorothy McAuliffe and Eugene Vindman, as McAuliffe would clearly be the stronger candidate in VA-07, but such a contest would only be the case if the Democrats nationally recognize the fact that Vindman is a weak hand and motivating candidate among Republicans and independents alike — in a district where military veterans have a proportionately strong presence.
Which gets into the question as to why the Democrats are putting so much energy into Virginia’s redistricting effort. Certainly, the allure of picking up four seats is worth some consideration, but given the layout of the present non-partisan districts, a 9-2 scenario in a D+15 environment isn’t impossible. In fact, it would be likely — that is, if the generic ballot were D+15.
In the meantime, despite the feverish passions of hardline Democrats, the more reasonable sense of fair play among Virginians is picking up steam and looking to send a message back to the unfair and partisan efforts to “save democracy” by running roughshod over it.
Bringing things back to our friend Vaclav Havel, the only true way to reject the specter of authoritarianism is to refuse to live within the lie and confront the lies with a bit of honesty and truth. From the very beginning of the argument to the wording of the amendment, the Democrats have done nothing to “restore fairness” beyond running roughshod over their own rhetoric to obtain their true objective — POWER.
No observer of the referendum contest denies this, but it does come down to a very basic bet on decency vs. nihilism — on fair play vs. the pursuit of powercraft for its own sake.
Lest we need reminders, decency was on the ballot in November in Virginia — and decency lost. Decency is on the ballot again in April alongside another friend: consistency. For all the concerns about decency in politics today, we are about to find out if the word has any meaning within the honorable center — even if Spanberger is choosing to abandon both for temporary political position.
Shaun Kenney is editor for The Republican Standard. This column has been republished with permission from The Republican Standard and Bacon’s Rebellion.
