Youngkin Has the Better Message
Dems think they have a winning issue in decrying layoffs of federal workers. Don’t count on it.
by James A. Bacon
Governor Glenn Youngkin is looking like a pretty darn good steward of the public fisc these days. Bucking a slowdown in the national economy, Virginia’s General Fund revenues increased 8.8% in April, tracking $220 ahead of the state’s official forecast. Instead of spending the money, the Governor is adding the surplus to reserves set aside to weather cutbacks to the federal spending that sustains much of the commonwealth’s economy.
Predictably, Democrats are in a snit. They want to spend more money to address an inexhaustible well of “unmet needs” and also to tar Youngkin by association with President Trump’s moves to slash the size of the federal workforce. Youngkin has refused to distance himself from DOGE initiatives.
“I think what bothers me the most is, he isn’t stating what all of us know to be true,” Del. Joshua Cole, D-Fredericksburg, told NOTUS. “He knows what is going to happen down in Washington is having impacts already.”
Likewise, Democratic candidates for statewide office have adopted the strategy of running against President Trump. “There’s no one I trust more to stand up to Trump and Musk than you, Jay,” says former Governor Ralph Northam to Jay Jones, candidate for Attorney General, in Jones’ latest ad.
We’ll see how that plays out. If I were a Republican candidate, I would double down in defense of Youngkin’s fiscal policies and in support of restructuring unsustainable federal deficit spending, even if it means short-term pain for Virginians. Moody’s, the bond rating firm, has joined S&P and Fitch in downgrading U.S. federal debt — once seen as the world’s safest — from AAA to AA1. It is far better for Virginia to emancipate itself from federal spending now than wait until the inevitable reckoning forced by merciless bond vigilantes.
Youngkin acknowledges the “short-term risks” to Virginia of Trump’s agenda, but he has countered those risks by restoring Virginia’s economic growth, making conservative budgetary forecasts, and socking away surplus tax revenues.
“The bottom line is this: Virginia’s financial strength, dynamic growing economy, and prudent budgeting enables us to confidently lead through this time of necessary change while other states like Maryland and D.C. are being downgraded because they failed to address long-standing concerns,” Youngkin spokesman Peter Finocchio told NOTUS.
While Youngkin is stashing away budget surpluses, Washington, D.C., faces a billion-dollar budgetary deficit, while Maryland grapples with a $3 billion shortfall.
Among the actions he took to inoculate Virginia’s budget from fiscal chaos in the nation’s capital, Youngkin used his line-item veto to cut $900 million in projects and programs from the state budget submitted by legislators. He added the savings to the existing $3.2 billion in the state’s rainy-day fund, reports NOTUS.
The Democrats’ lamentations over cuts to the federal workforce likely will play well in Northern Virginia, where the commonwealth’s federal civilian workforce is concentrated. But NoVa votes overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates anyway. Will the message resonate votes downstate? Or will Youngkin’s message prevail?
“Virginia’s financials remain strong, reflecting strong job growth and business investment,” Youngkin said in a recent statement. “With over 265,000 more Virginians working today versus three years ago and over $100 billion in capital investment commitments from companies eager to grow in Virginia, the Commonwealth’s financial performance is tracking ahead of forecast.”
Virginia’s economy is expanding non-federal jobs faster than the federal government is eliminating them. Virginia lost an estimated 4,100 federal jobs in March. Nevertheless, the economy was able to replace those and add another 5,900 that month.
Youngkin has launched a job website touting 250,000 jobs available across the state, many of them in Northern Virginia. Democrats have argued that the available jobs don’t line up with the compensation and expectations of former federal workers, NOTUS notes.
Waaah. The same can be said of many downstate communities whose local industries have been gutted by economic change. Democrats famously suggested that out-of-work coal miners should learn computer coding. Don’t be surprised if many downstate voters conclude that sauce for the coal miner should be sauce for the federal office worker. They, too, should learn to code!
The political risk for Youngkin and Republicans is that Virginia has seen only the first wave of federal cutbacks. In recent days, there have been reports of extensive layoffs among federal contractors in Northern Virginia. The economic pain is intensifying. Dems assuredly will take maximum advantage of it, accusing Republicans of heartless indifference to federal employees… who in the Washington metro earn an average of roughly $140,000 a year. Hmmm. Upon second thought, maybe that message won’t play so well downstate after all.
