Dissecting the Blue Wave: Fundraising
by James A. Bacon
Democrats swept the statewide races and flipped 13 House of Delegates seats Tuesday — a watershed in Virginia politics. Any analysis of the Blue Wave must take into account the vast discrepancy in fundraising prowess of Democrats over Republicans, not just in the statewide races but in the House races as well.
Between statewide and House races combined, Democrat candidates reported $149.6 million in contributions as of October 23. Republicans raised $85.9 million.
The relationship between money raised and electoral success is a complicated one. Spending more money on a campaign does not guarantee a win: Attorney General Jason Miyares outspent the scandal-ridden Jay Jones but lost to him anyway. But all other things being equal, more money is better than less money. It helps build a better campaign organization and buys more cable TV and social media advertising.
Abigail Spanberger’s money advantage in the gubernatorial race and Ghazala Hashmi’s money dominance in the contest for lieutenant general have been widely reported.
According to VPAP data, Democrats’ fundraising advantage was just as lopsided in the House of Delegates races.
The top 14 House fundraisers were Democrats. The top Republican, Delegate Carrie Coyner, R- Chesterfield, ranked 15th. (She lost, incidentally, to Lindsey Dougherty.)
Where did the money come from? This graphic shows the top donors.
The House Democratic Caucus raised $25.6 million and the Democratic Party of Virginia another $3.1 million, for a total of $28.7 million.
The Republican Party of Virginia raised $2.8 million, the Republican Commonwealth Leadership PAC $1.9 million, and the Republican Commonwealth Leadership PAC almost $0.7 million, for a total of $5.4 million.
This is a massive discrepancy: roughly 5 to 1. Clearly, the House Democratic Caucus was the vehicle through which massive sums of money were funneled. I invited readers with more knowledge than I have to shed some light on where those dollars came from.
In all likelihood, given the success Democrats had in making the election a referendum on President Trump, they would have won the election handily regardless. But the money advantage, particularly in House races, helps explain their outsized gains in the legislature.
It’s funny how you don’t hear Democrats clamoring for caps on campaign contributions much anymore.
